All,
While I think this is a really fun collaborative effort, with a lot of analytically interesting questions that serve as a great way for us to sharpen our Power BI skills, personally I don’t think this is a sound investment strategy. While there aren’t a lot of data points, the performance of funds based on this approach is pretty dismal. Furthermore, if you believe free markets operate according to rational expectations, and particularly as technology has made this sort of analysis available to individual investors, then the forecasts based on technical analysis will already be factored into the market price. I think the chance of this sort of analysis outperforming a low fee, total market index over any significant length of time is nearly nil.
Other certainly may, and probably will, disagree with this assessment, but I just wanted to clarify that my strong enthusiasm for this project is strictly from a learning standpoint and not an endorsement of the strategy itself.
- Brian